For Earth Day

All the air in the atmospere but at surface conditions:

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All the CO2 emitted in one day:

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Courtesy Carbon Visuals

As the World Bank and others ramp up the discussion on carbon pricing, heads are turning towards Paris with thoughts on how the issue will be incorporated into the expected COP21 global climate deal. I have said many times in the past that unless a carbon price makes its way into the whole global energy system, then its success in bringing down emissions is far from assured. While local carbon pricing wins will appear, the global effort could be undermined by a lack of global coverage.   This is true of other policy approaches as well, but in the case of carbon pricing there is the significant benefit of economic efficiency.  For me, the signs so far aren’t great, with the text that came out of the Geneva ADP meeting showing few signs of tackling this important issue.

In recent weeks I have heard some commentators and national climate negotiators argue that the Framework Convention itself is sufficient to underpin cooperative carbon market development and that all the COP21 deal needs is a framework to ensure that accounting of carbon based trades is robust and avoids issues such as double counting (two parties each counting a particular reduction under their own emissions inventory). The underpinning language within the Convention can be found in several places (examples below), but the references are oblique and without direct recognition of carbon pricing or carbon markets;

  • Efforts to address climate change may be carried out cooperatively by interested Parties;
  • These Parties may implement such policies and measures jointly with other Parties and may assist other Parties in contributing to the achievement of the objective of the Convention;
  • Coordinate as appropriate with other such Parties, relevant economic and administrative instruments developed to achieve the objective of the Convention;

While this language could be interpreted as a mandate to develop a global carbon market and the ensuing exchange of carbon pricing instruments between Parties, or companies within the jurisdiction of those Parties, it hardly encourages this process to take place, let alone become a key activity in implementing a global deal. Similarly, if a Paris deal just addresses accounting issues, I don’t believe that this will act as the necessary catalyst for carbon market development either. It’s a bit like agreeing how to calculate the GDP and then not opening the national mint to print and issue the currency!!

Looking back at the Kyoto Protocol, the Clean Development Mechanism provides some valuable learning. While it isn’t a comprehensive carbon pricing instrument the Protocol nevertheless catalysed its development with a few paragraphs of text, to the extent that it eventually pushed some $100 billion (some have estimated much higher levels) in project investment into various developing country economies. This far eclipses the $10 billion that has so far been pledged to the Green Climate Fund, clearly demonstrating that market based approaches will almost always outstrip direct public financing or funding.    To meet the developed countries’ commitment to mobilize $100bn per annum by 2020, it is clear that carbon market approaches including linking will be required.  It is difficult to see how it will be met without incentivizing the private sector in this way.

This is the sort of step that I think the negotiators in Paris need to take. Rather than just elaborating on core accounting principles, I believe that they need to incorporate a means of actively encouraging carbon market expansion. Given the nationally determined contribution based architecture that is emerging, such a development will probably be a bottom up process, perhaps with heterogeneous linking between various market based systems. The Harvard Kennedy School are offering valuable insight into how this might transpire.

One organisation, IETA, has put forward a proposal for Paris along these lines. It is a light touch approach, given the opposition that a real carbon market proposal seems to foster, but hopefully it will be enough to get things started. The IETA proposal calls for the development of a “unified international transfer system”, in effect a “plug-and-play” linkage approach for national trading systems. With wording along these lines in the Paris agreement, later COP decisions could establish the modalities for such a system, thus opening up and accelerating the process that the likes of California and Quebec went through to link their respective trading systems. Such modalities would include the common accounting framework that is needed irrespective of the approach taken to encourage the development of a global market. In all cases, accounting still remains central to progress.

I won’t claim that this is the quickest and most effective way forward, but it is where we are and probably the best that can be achieved, assuming the push from above is there to encourage it. Without such a push, we are all left to hope that something may transpire on carbon markets, but wishful thinking isn’t a solution to 2°C.

The submission of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the UNFCCC started in earnest to meet the March 31st agreed date, although many more are still to come. Mexico was the only non-Annex I country (under the Convention) to submit by this date, although the Gabon submission appeared the following day.

A feature of the Mexico submission is the reference to Business as Usual (BAU) as a metric against which to measure progress. Although Mexico is clear on its commendable absolute long term objective, i.e. “. . . . consistent with Mexico´s pathway to reduce 50% of emissions by the year 2050, with respect to the year 2000”, its shorter term progress will be guided by reference to a “Business As Usual scenario of emission projections based on economic growth in the absence of climate change policies, starting from 2013”. The reference to Business As Usual is a factor that we will likely see in many of the upcoming INDC submissions. BAU was also a feature of many Copenhagen pledges, but in several instances the BAU pathway was hard to discern, which made the pledge difficult to understand and rather opaque in terms of actual numbers and therefore effort. This time around numbers will have to be very clear and part of the scrutiny and review process that negotiators are working towards will need to address the credibility and transparency of the BAU reference. In the case of Mexico, the BAU is well documented.

But even when the numbers are published, a BAU reference can make pledges and actions taken appear far more ambitious than may be the case. This is particularly so when energy efficiency is claimed as a major contributor to supposed reductions in emissions. Based on an existing relationship between energy and GDP and assuming a given near-term growth in economic output, it is easy to project what BAU emissions might be in 2020 or 2030 and then argue that a focus on energy efficiency can reduce this, effectively claiming an emissions reduction. This reasoning would appear to show that the country in question is making a large contribution to the global effort and that energy efficiency is an important contributing factor to change, yet in reality the original projection represents a situation that may never have occurred. Business-as-usual also requires improvements in energy efficiency to drive growth, which means that the assumed growth may not have occurred, had the efficiency improvements not helped deliver it. If energy efficiency really is a route to lower emissions, then it needs to pass one clear test, i.e. which known fossil fuel resource will be left in the ground (or a proposed extraction project shelved) because of this? Only then are cumulative emissions potentially impacted.

The Mexico INDC also highlighted a propensity to mix together actions on long lived greenhouse gases such as CO2 and short lived pollutants such as black carbon (very short lived) and methane (short to medium life). Mexico is reasonably transparent here as well, although its highest level number aggregates the two, i.e. “Mexico is committed to reduce unconditionally 25% of its Greenhouse Gases and Short Lived Climate Pollutants emissions (below BAU) for the year 2030”. The problem is that although carbon dioxide and black carbon (which is the major focus in Mexico) both contribute to warming of the climate system, they behave very differently in the atmosphere and mitigation leads to different outcomes which are not interchangeable.

Black carbon remains in the atmosphere for only days or weeks, which means it strongly impacts the rate of warming today but has little impact on the global goal to limit overall warming of the climate system to 2°C, unless of course there is still an unacceptable level of black carbon in the atmosphere at a time in the future when warming is approaching its peak. By contrast, carbon dioxide remains for hundreds to thousands of years and largely sets the thermostat of the future climate. Solving the black carbon problem today would deliver tangible near term benefits on a number of fronts, but unless carbon dioxide mitigation also takes place the long term outcome will hardly shift.

Mexico has set the bar quite high with its clear and well-structured contribution, but the metrics and baseline used highlight issues that the UNFCCC may need to deal with over the coming months as it begins to assess the merit of all the national contributions.

The last days of March have seen the start of submissions of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the UNFCCC. The United States, Switzerland, European Union, Mexico and Russia have all met the requested deadline of the end of Q1 2015. As is expected and entirely in line with the UNFCC request, the INDCs focus on national emissions. After all, this is the way emissions management has always been handled and reported and there is no sign of anything changing in the future.

As was to be expected, the United States submitted an INDC that indicated a 26-28% reduction in national emissions by 2025 relative to a baseline of 2005. This is an ambitious pledge, and highlights the changes underway in the US economy as it shifts towards more gas, backs out domestic use of coal, improves efficiency and installs renewable generation capacity. So far the USA national inventory indicates that the 2020 target is being progressively delivered, although it will be interesting to see whether this trend changes as a result of the sharp reduction in oil prices and a couple of summer driving seasons on the back of that.

US 2020 and 2030 Reduction Target

My own analysis in 2011 (see below) was that the USA would come close to its 2020 goal, but may struggle to meet it. The different overall level of emissions in the charts is the result of including various sources (e.g. agriculture) and gases, or not.

US 2020 Goal with 2010 data

Direct emissions represent just one view of US emissions. Some would argue that the national inventory should also include embedded emissions within imported products, but this introduces considerable complexity into the estimation.

Another representation of US emissions which is perhaps more relevant to the climate issue is the actual extraction of fossil carbon from US territory. As the climate issue follows a stock model, the development of global fossil resources and subsequent use over the ensuing years is a measure that is closer to the reality of the problem. The larger the resource base that is developed globally, the higher the eventual concentration of carbon dioxide that the atmosphere is likely to reach. This is because the long-term accumulation will tend towards the full release of developed fossil fuel reserves simply because the infrastructure exists to extract them and as such they will more than likely get used somewhere or at some time. This isn’t universally true, as the closure of some uneconomic coal mines in the USA is showing; or are they simply being mothballed?

A look at US carbon commitment to the atmosphere from a production standpoint reveals a different emissions picture. Rather than seeing a drop in US emissions since 2005, the upward trend that has persisted for decades (albeit it a slower rate since the late 1960s) is continuing.

US emissions based on extraction

In the case of measured direct emissions, reduced coal use is driving down emissions. But for the extraction case, additional coal is now being exported and the modest drop in coal production is being more than countered by increasing oil and gas production. Total carbon extraction is rising.

While there is no likelihood that national emission inventories will start being assessed on such a basis, it does nevertheless throw a different light onto the picture. In a recent visit to Norway it was interesting to hear about national plans to head rapidly towards net-zero emissions, but for the country to maintain its status as an oil and gas exporter. This would be something of a contradiction if Norway was not such a strong advocate for the development of carbon capture and storage, a strategy which will hopefully encourage others to use this technology in the future.

Back in 2009 this blog was kicked off by a trip to Antarctica for the NGO 2041. Over the last two weeks I have had the privilege to return, again with 2041. This is an NGO that is dedicated to the preservation of the continent as a last untouched place on earth – the name derives from the 50th anniversary of the Antarctic Treaty which imposes a moratorium on mining and resource extraction form Antarctica, but with the possibility of review of that provision in the 2040s.

2041 run annual expeditions to the Antarctic Peninsula in a bid to help younger people understand the importance of the continent with the potential that some of them may be in a position to make a difference on the outcome of any review in 30 years time. This overarching story about Antarctica serves as a backdrop for a deeper dive into sustainability and environmental issues, including climate change.

I gave a series of presentations on climate change over the two weeks, drawing extensively from the material in this blog and from my recent book. When I spoke in the theatre on the ship, the world’s largest cache of fresh water was visible through the window beside me; as ice stored in the mighty glaciers of the Antarctic continent.  A chain of events is now unfolding leading to a gradual reduction in ice mass in Antarctica, thereby raising sea levels and slowly impacting coastlines the world over. The young people in the audience will have to deal with this legacy.

On the trip we saw a different legacy of sorts, with a stop at Whalers Bay in Deception Island; I use the word “in” here because you literally sail into the island to reveal its splendour. Whalers Bay is a sombre place where for a period of some thirty years early in the 20th Century killed whales were brought ashore for rendering and extraction of their valuable oil. Although US whale oil use had almost vanished by 1900, it continued on globally for some time after this, being used for lamp oil, soap and margarine. But by the 1930s when Whalers Bay was eventually abandoned, whale oil prices globally had collapsed as substitutes for almost all its uses had been found. Electricity, crude oil and vegetable oils brought this industry to an end. Whalers Bay is an interesting place to contemplate the market shifts we may see this century!

To close out, here are a few of my photographs from the expedition. The final photograph is of a rare sighting of a sperm whale near Cape Horn.

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It is looking increasingly likely, but not a given, that a reference to global net-zero emissions or even a specific goal to achieve net-zero emissions by a certain date (e.g. end of the century) will appear in the climate deal that is expected to emerge from the Paris COP at the end of this year. But like many such goals, it is both open to interpretation and raises questions as to how it might actually be achieved.

The background to this is that the issue itself implies that this outcome is necessary. The IPCC says in its 5th Assessment Report;

Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond. Limiting risks across RFCs (Reasons for Concern) would imply a limit for cumulative emissions of CO2. Such a limit would require that global net emissions of CO2 eventually decrease to zero and would constrain annual emissions over the next few decades (Figure SPM.10) (high confidence).

However, the term net-zero needs some sort of definition, although this is currently missing from the UNFCCC text. One online source offers the following;

Net phase out of GHG emissions means that anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere decrease to a level equal to or smaller than anthropogenic removals of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.

The above effectively means stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of CO2, which also aligns with the ultimate aim of the UNFCCC Convention (stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system). This could still leave room for some level of emissions in that climate models show atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide will decline if anthropogenic emissions abruptly stopped. In a 450 – 500 ppm stabilization scenario emissions could remain in the range 7-10 billion tonnes CO2 per annum without driving the atmospheric concentration higher. This is far below current levels (35 billion tonnes per annum from the energy system alone), but it isn’t zero. It can be classified as net-zero though, in that the atmospheric concentration isn’t rising.

However, such an outcome, while stabilizing the atmospheric concentration may not be sufficient to prevent dangerous interference with the climate system. In that case an even lower level of emissions may be required, such that atmospheric concentrations do begin to fall and stabilize at a lower concentration.

Another definition of net-zero may simply apply to anthropogenic emissions directly, irrespective of what the concentration in the atmosphere might be doing. In this case, any remaining emissions from anthropogenic sources (and there will be some) would have to be offset with sequestration of carbon dioxide, either via CCS or a permanent forestry solution. In the CCS case, the carbon dioxide would need to come from a bio-source, such as the combustion of biomass in a power station. This is what the IPCC have termed BECCS.

A final step which goes beyond net-zero, is to have an anthropogenic net-negative emissions situation, which is drawing down on the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere through some anthropogenic process. This would be necessary to rapidly lower the concentration of carbon dioxide in the case of a significantly elevated level that comes about in the intervening years between now and the point at which the concentration stabilizes. Very large scale deployment of BECCS or an atmospheric capture solution with CCS would be required to achieve this.

Finally, there is the consideration that needs to be given to greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide. Methane for example, while a potent greenhouse gas, is relatively short lived (a decade) in the atmosphere so will require some thought. Even in a zero energy emissions system, methane from agriculture and cattle will doubtless remain a problem.

Both of the Shell New Lens scenarios end in a  net zero emissions outcome by the end of the century, but this is within the energy system itself and does not encompass the full range of other sources of CO2 emissions and other long lived greenhouse gases. Nevertheless, with extensive deployment of CCS the Mountains scenario heads into negative emissions territory by 2100 and the Oceans scenario soon after that (which means there is potential to offset remaining emissions from very difficult to manage sources). Oceans relies on this approach in a major way to even approach zero in the first instance

Many look to renewable energy as a quick solution to the emissions issue, but the reality is far more complex. While we can imagine a power generation system that is at near zero emissions, made up of nuclear, renewables and fossil fuels with CCS, this is far from a complete solution. Electricity currently represents only 20% of the global final energy mix (see below, click for a larger image: Source IEA).

Global final energy 2012

Solutions will need to be found for a broad range of goods and services that give rise to greenhouse gas emissions, including non-energy sources such as limestone calcination for cement and cattle rearing for dairy and direct consumption. While we can also imagine a significant amount of global light transport migrating to electricity, shipping, heavy transport and aviation will not be so simple. Aviation in particular has no immediate solution other than through a biofuel route although there is some experimentation underway using high intensity solar to provide the energy for synthesis gas manufacture (from carbon dioxide and water), which is then converted to jet fuel via the well-established Fischer–Tropsch process. There are also dozens of industrial processes that rely on furnaces and high temperatures, typically powered by fuels such as natural gas. Metal smelting currently uses coal as the reducing agent, so a carbon based fuel is intrinsic to the process. Solutions will be required for all of these.

Whether we aim for a very low level of emissions, true net-zero anthropogenic emissions or negative emissions is somewhat academic today, given the current level of emissions. All the aforementioned outcomes are going to require a radical re-engineering of the energy system in a relatively short amount of time (< 80 years).

At the UN Climate Summit last September, the World Bank and others put the carbon pricing – or perhaps more correctly carbon valuation – discussion squarely back on the agenda, first with a Statement on Carbon Pricing signed by over 1000 companies and 70 governments and then with a series of side events and meetings which also carried through to COP20 in Lima. The World Bank is now building on their initiative throughout 2015 as we head towards COP21 in Paris.

One important aspect of the initiative is the role of business and the way in which companies handle the carbon pricing (carbon valuation) agenda internally. This stems from another part of the World Bank initiative which was initially launched by the UN Global Compact, the Business Leadership Criteria on Carbon Pricing. The criteria are designed to encourage companies to incorporate an internal carbon price (value) within the business, advocate for  carbon value generally and communicate on progress. The first of these has led to some interesting discussions in various forums, with a range of views emerging as to what an internal carbon price (value) does and how it is applied.

Some observers have concluded that an internal approach operates as a true proxy cost of carbon emissions within the business that is applying it, such that the business behaves as if it were subjected to an external carbon tax operating at the same price. This would be done in the absence of such an external price driver, therefore acting as a stand-in for the lack of government action. To some extent, wishful thinking is operating here, with some believing that internal carbon pricing can lead to widespread emission reductions as a major business led initiative. But this is not what is happening or what is meant by an internal carbon price.

Rather, the internal “carbon price”, also referred to as a “shadow carbon price”, “carbon price premise” or “carbon screening value” is normally a mechanism used to manage the future regulatory risk that parts of the company or a future project may be exposed to. For example, if a certain investment is to be made, that investment is then tested against a variety of future conditions, which could include an eventual cost incurred by the expected emissions of carbon dioxide. Although the project may not immediately be exposed to such a price, the development of climate legislation over the life of the project may create such an exposure, which in turn could threaten the future viability of the asset. The application of a screening value applied when the investment proposal is being assessed allows the investor to reconsider the project, change the scope, modify the design or simply accept the level of risk and proceed.

The practice of applying an internal carbon price (value) in this manner is one of many steps that a company may take as it prepares for a world in which a real cost on carbon emissions becomes an external reality. The World Bank has developed a series of case studies on these preparatory measures and these have been published very recently in a report titled “Preparing for Carbon Pricing, Case Studies from Company Experience: Royal Dutch Shell, Rio Tinto, and Pacific Gas and Electric Company”. The report was prepared by the Washington based Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES) under the auspices of the Partnership for Market Readiness, a World Bank initiative.

Preparing for carbon pricing

These case studies illustrate the benefits of incorporating climate change policies into corporate strategies; analyzing risks and opportunities in an environment of new public policies; and engaging effectively with relevant stakeholders—including governments. The case studies also show how carbon assets are traded and what systems are being constructed to monitor, report, and verify company level GHG emissions.

Fifty shades of grey?

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The tension was building throughout the week, but finally just before Valentine’s Day weekend the negotiators in Geneva completed the first draft of a Paris negotiating text and released it at the end of the eighth part of the second session of the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP). Contained within this 86 page document, replete with perhaps 400 or so carefully worded options to select from and 1,234 square brackets, is supposedly the necessary political recipe for addressing the climate issue over the coming decades. Or were we presented with the greyness of diplomacy and compromise, which may be the best that can be managed for now, but doesn’t incorporate the necessary toolkit to drive down emissions in the decades to come?

The text certainly contains sufficient versions of one important overarching requirement; that being the need to reach net zero emissions at some point in the future. In the context of the level of greenhouse gas emissions, the word zero appears in the text seven times, from a non-specific reference of “net zero greenhouse gas emissions in line with the ultimate objective of the Convention“, to the highly ambitious proposal for “zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases in the period 2060–2080“. I discussed this at some length in my previous post, with the conclusion that an end of the century net zero emissions objective is perhaps achievable, but much earlier than this looks unlikely. Even a timeframe of 85 years will require enormous effort, including extensive use of carbon pricing and the widespread deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS). This view received quite a number of comments on The Energy Collective. My post wasn’t to argue that nothing would happen or that no progress could be made, but to point out the difficulty of rapidly slowing down and turning a system that has such enormous momentum. All of the suggested technologies that filled the comments section will almost certainly play a role, but the challenge is the time it takes to do all this. My own experience in the energy industry tells me the timeframe is decades, not years. In my view, the text now taking us forward to Paris doesn’t present the necessary conditions for a strong response, but it is only part of the story and much more will be revealed over the coming weeks and months as the INDCs (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions) are also published. This text seems to be more about achieving some diplomatic harmony around the climate issue and at least trying to get everyone marching to the same tune.

But returning to the text itself, the other area that needs considerable support and diplomatic effort is seeing a carbon price emerge within the global energy system. The phrase “carbon pricing” gets two mentions in the 86 pages of text, but there are many options presented on the “use of markets”. To some extent, “markets” is UNFCCC code for a carbon price, but not in all cases. It can also mean the further development of market mechanisms (such as the CDM) and the ability for developing countries to sell credits from these mechanisms to developed countries as a means of securing clean energy investment. While many variations around this theme are presented, there is no proposed language in the current text that really sets out to establish a full global carbon pricing regime – although Option 4 on page 17 perhaps comes closest by trying to resurrect something that operates along the lines of the Kyoto Protocol. A global carbon market seems to be a step too far for most countries at the moment, even though it is an essential part of the solution set. Rather, a proxy based approach is being proposed through multilateral institutions such as the World Bank, which hopes to see a global market develop over time through the linkage of various national and sub-national emissions management approaches and the interchange of the domestic units, quotas and allowances on which they are based. In the World Bank model, this would be governed by an exchange rate mechanism. This week also saw the UK House of Commons Energy & Climate Change Committee launch a report on the linking of emissions trading systems. The report concluded that;

Any agreement reached at the UNFCCC COP 21 in Paris at the end of 2015 should promote the use of carbon markets and facilitate the future linking of emissions trading systems.

One final reality check on the paris text is that nowhere in the 86 pages is CCS mentioned. While the UNFCCC is always very careful about featuring a specific technology and understandably so, the clear advice from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report was that 2°C cannot be reached without it, at least not within reasonable cost bounds. The IPCC does get mentioned 23 times.

In contrast with the events in Geneva, BP published their Energy Outlook 2035 which showed both overall energy demand and demand for fossil fuels rising in the outlook period (see chart; source: BP). The corresponding rise in energy system emissions is also given, reaching some 40 billion tonnes per annum by 2035. This is in contrast to the IEA 450 Scenario which argues for a fall in emissions to nearly 20 billion tonnes by 2035. However, the outlook does include a rising carbon price through to 2035, when it reaches some $40 per tonne CO2. Judging from the data presented, the main impact of this seems to be to bring coal growth to a near halt, but that’s all. The BP analysis presents a very different outlook to the one we need to stay within the 2°C threshold agreed by governments at the Cancun COP back in 2010. It also argues for a clear and robust outcome from Paris, although the current text doesn’t point in that direction.

BP Demand to 2035

BP Emissions to 2035

The calls for action are becoming louder and bolder as the weeks continue to countdown towards COP21 in Paris. Perhaps none have been as bold as the recent call by The B Team for governments to commit to a global goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, and to embed this in the agreement to be signed at COP21 in Paris.

The B Team is a high profile group of business and civil society leaders, counting amongst its number Richard Branson (Virgin Group of Companies), Paul Polman (CEO of Unilever) and Arianna Huffington (Huffington Post). The team is not just looking at climate change, but the even larger challenge of doing business in the 21st Century; shifting from Plan A which requires business to focus on profit alone, to Plan B which encompasses a more holistic set of objectives around financial performance, sustainability and business as a force for good to help solve challenging social and environmental goals. It is perhaps the next big step forward in what was originally termed “sustainable development”.

Without wanting to question the broader motives of The B Team, I do challenge their view that the climate issue can be resolved in just 35 years. For some this may sound like a long time, but it is the span of just one career. In fact it is the span of my career in the oil and gas industry from when I started work in Geelong Refinery in Australia in 1980. At least in one industry today, IT, everything has changed in that time, but that is not true elsewhere. In 1980 there were no personal computers in Geelong Refinery; today it probably can’t run without them, although the distillers, crackers and oil movement facilities being run by them have hardly changed and in many instances are precisely the same pieces of equipment that were running in 1980. In almost every other industry, the shift has been gradual, perhaps because of the installed base which of course wasn’t an issue for personal computing and mobile telephony. I suspect that this is true in Mr Polman’s own industry (household products) and it is certainly true in Mr Branson’s. In 1980 I flew on my first trip to London on a 747 and today I am in San Francisco, having arrived here on a 747, albeit a slightly longer, more sophisticated, efficient and larger capacity one than the 1980 model, but still a 747 burning many tons of jet fuel to get here. During his time in office which started with the election in 1980, Ronald Reagan replaced the existing Air Force One 707 with a 747 which still flies today but which Mr Obama has just announced will be replaced with a 747-8. Those planes will likely fly for some 30 years, as will all the other planes being built today, with many just entering the beginning of their production runs (787, A350, A380), rather than heading towards the end as we might be with the 747 series. There are also no serious plans for the jet engine to run on anything other than hydrocarbons for the foreseeable future (i.e. 50+ years) and even the attempts to manufacture bio-hydrocarbon jet fuels are still in their commercial infancy.

So why would we think that everything can be different in just 35 years? There is no doubt that to quickly and decisively solve the climate issue and have a better than even chance of keeping the surface temperature rise below 2°C that we need to do this, but that doesn’t mean we can. To start with, there has to be tremendous political will to do so and to be fair, this is clearly what The B Team is trying to foster by making the call. But political will isn’t enough to turn over the installed industrial capacity that we rely on today, let alone replace it with a set of technologies that in some instances don’t exist. The development and deployment of radical new technologies takes decades, with the energy industry able to make that change at about half the rate of the IT industry. Even the latter has needed nearly 50 years to invent (ARPANET in 1969) and extensively deploy the internet.

We are now seeing real progress in the sale of electric cars, but even there the numbers don’t stack up. To completely outpace conventional vehicle manufacture and replace the entire legacy stock of on-road vehicles will take about 50 years, assuming a ramp up of global electric car production of at least 20% p.a. every year until all internal combustion engine manufacturing is phased out. While this might be conceivable for personal transport, the progress on finding an alternative for heavy transport, including ships, is slow.

For medium to heavy industry that relies almost completely on hydrocarbon fuels for high temperature operations in particular, there are no easy alternatives. Electricity could be an option in some instances, but almost all operations today choose coal or natural gas. For smelting, coal is essential as it provides the carbon to act as a reducing agent for the chemical conversion of the ore into a pure metal.

Perhaps the area in which rapid progress will be seen is electricity generation, where a whole range of zero emission technologies exist. These include wind, solar, geothermal, tidal, nuclear and carbon capture and storage. But even with complete success in this one area, we shouldn’t forget that electricity is less than 20% of the current global final energy mix. This will surely rise, but it is unlikely to reach 100% in 35 years given that it has only moved from 11% to 18% the last 35 years.

Shell’s own New Lens Scenarios show that significant progress can be made between now and 2050, but not in terms of a massive reduction in emissions, although that process is clearly underway in the Mountains Scenario by then (see below). Rather, the time to 2050 is largely filled with the early deployment of a range of new energy technologies, which sets the scene for rapid reductions to net-zero emissions over the period 2050-2100. Another critical development for the near-term is a complete global policy framework for carbon pricing. Even assuming big steps are made between now and Paris in even getting this into the agreement, the time for implementation is a factor that must be recognised. With a fast start in Paris, the earliest possible date is 2020 in that this is when the global agreement kicks in, but even the EU ETS took 8 years between initial design and full operation, similarly the CDM alone took over 10 years to fully institutionalize. Expanding full carbon pricing globally in the same period is challenging to say the least.

NLS Emissions to 2100

The aspiration of the B Team is laudable, but not really practical. The Paris agreement should certainly be geared around an end-goal of net-zero emissions but the realistic, albeit still aggressive, time span for this is 80+ years, not 35 years.

 

The first fridge in town

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The recent visit by President Obama to India and the resulting discussions on climate change between the President and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have once again thrown the spotlight on India’s development pathway and its energy needs.

There were countless articles about the climate change discussions they had, but one story published by the BBC was particularly relevant and poignant. It was about Santosh Chowdhury, a gentleman who lives in the village of Rameshwarpur, on the eastern side of the country. He had just bought a fridge, which may seem uninteresting, but it was the first fridge in his village. There is one thing about refrigeration that is different to almost any other domestic energy consuming device, it requires fairly reliable 24/7 electricity. That means Mr Chowdhury, like many in his town who may now follow him, needs a grid connection and that grid has to be sending electrons his way all the time.

First fridge

This is the start of a long industrial chain that needs a modern energy system to support it. The fridge needs electricity on a 24/7 basis, which excludes the immediate application of renewable energy as the primary provider. Some sort of back-up or energy storage mechanism will be required. In India, given cost considerations, the baseload electricity will likely be generated with coal although it is clear that India are also looking towards nuclear. Solar energy will augment this and at certain times may provide for all Mr Chowdhury’s needs, but unless the town spends considerably more money and installs a more complex grid system with battery capacity, the dependency on coal will continue, at least in the medium term.

But the story doesn’t end there, given that electricity provides only about 20% of final energy needs globally and in India this falls to 15%. The lack of fridges in Rameshwarpur reflects the situation across the whole of India. The BBC article notes that only one in four of the country’s homes has one. That compares to an average of 99% of households in developed countries. In 2004, 24% of households in China owned a fridge. Ten years later this had shot up to 88%. India has about 250 million households, which approximates to 60 million fridges. By 2030 as population rises, people per household decline and fridge ownership approaches Chinese levels, India might have 400 million fridges.

So Mr Chowdhury’s purchase and others following, will mean that India needs to produce more fridges – lots more. In 2000 China was producing 13 million refrigerators per annum, but by 2010 this had jumped to 73 million. This means India needs more refrigerator factories and chemical plants to make the refrigerant. The refrigerators might be made of steel and aluminium which means mining or the import of ores, refining, smelting, casting, stamping and transport. All of these need coal, gas and oil. Coal in particular is needed for smelting iron ore as it acts as the reducing agent, producing carbon dioxide in the process. The intense heat required in the processes is most easily and economically provided by coal or gas, although given time electricity will doubtless make its way into these processes.

Oil will be needed as a transport fuel to ship all these materials from mines to refineries to manufacturing plants to distribution depots, then wholesalers, shops and finally Mr Chowdhury’s home. Although electricity is starting to appear in the transport sector for lighter vehicles, with the exception of railways it isn’t the energy provider yet for heavy transport. In India, rail transport is extensive and electrification is making good progress, but there is still much to be done.

With a refrigerator in the house, the BBC reports that family life for Mr Chowdhury will change. It will be easier, so his productivity in other areas may well rise. This could translate to more income, further purchases and perhaps the first opportunity for air travel in the years to come. That will certainly be powered by Jet A1.

There is no doubt that India is industrialising rapidly and Prime Minister Modi should be commended for his ambitious goal of 100 GW of solar capacity by 2020 and speeding up the nuclear programme, but this won’t stop carbon dioxide emissions from rising sharply in the near term; it is more a question of how high they rise and the more immediate actions that can be taken. I am reminded again of a tender call for 8GW of coal fired capacity in India that appeared in the Economist a while back. This is just one project of many.

India coal

Coming back to the discussions between Mr Obama and Mr Modi, it is clear to me that India faces a huge challenge, which should also be recognised as a global challenge to help them and others make a different set of energy choices. The start with solar is important but it may not be enough to keep coal emissions down in the medium term. So here are three suggestions from me to take India forward;

  1. Develop low cost village scale energy storage to support solar. This could also position India as a key supplier to Africa in the decades to come.
  2. In the short term,  favour natural gas over coal for electricity generation. This would make a real difference to power sector emissions and would help India bypass the severe air quality issues now being faced in China. It would also avoid the cost of retro fits later on.
  3. For the longer term, particularly for industry but also power generation, the real game changer could be carbon capture and storage. This is where more international focus is needed, especially in the development of funding mechanisms to support its deployment in developing countries.