There is an interesting article in The Economist this week which discusses the impact that renewable energy is having in Germany. As renewable energy use grows, there is the perverse effect that coal is staying put and natural gas is getting backed out. As a result, German emissions aren’t really doing much at the moment. They certainly aren’t continuing to fall.
This is just one example of the overall challenge of actually seeing a sustained fall in fossil fuel use and therefore emissions. Another was highlighted in last week’s Economist, but not as an article, rather a call for tender in the rear of the magazine.
Two Indian states called for interested parties to pre-qualify for the construction of 8 GW of coal fired power stations – just two examples of many similar cases around the world. These power stations, once constructed, might run for up to 50 years, delivering some 2.5 billion tonnes of CO2 to the atmosphere or nearly 700 million tonnes of carbon. Against a global cumulative limit of 1 trillion tonnes of carbon (for 2°C), of which 570 billion tonnes has been used, this one set of tender documents represents nearly 0.2% of the all-time remaining carbon emissions.
They will likely be built, as will many others, bringing much needed electricity to rapidly emerging economies. In this particular case, this development will deliver about the same electricity as all the currently installed wind and solar capacity in India. That’s about 22 GW, but with a load factor of about 0.3, gives something similar to 8 GW of coal.
Given its longevity, this facility should be built with carbon capture and storage, but there is no sign of that happening. While India has made great strides in renewable energy investment and energy efficiency, it has yet to tackle CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use. Given the growing Indian economy, fossil fuel use is also growing and alternatives aren’t even close to keeping pace with the overall demand. So far this century (13 years) Indian CO2 emissions have approximately doubled.
With COP19 in Warsaw just around the corner and then only two years before a comprehensive global deal is supposed to be agreed in Paris, developments like this raise the question as to what could possibly happen in such a short space of time to fundamentally turn the corner.
Despite the efforts made and the best of intentions, is it really conceivable that the deal in Paris in 2015 will change the terms of this tender, and others like it, to ones that requires CCS?