Electric vehicles and 2030

Over a decade ago in one of my very first posts in this blog, I responded to what appeared to be a working assumption in government that there would be between 1 and 2 million electric cars on the road in the UK by 2020. It was hard to imagine that this would be the case and harder to calculate a pathway that would deliver such an outcome. I noted at the time that after a dozen years and some significant stimulus, the number of hybrid vehicles on UK roads had risen to 300,000. So here we are in late 2020 and the number of battery electric vehicles on the road in the UK is around 200,000. There are plug-in hybrids in addition to this, roughly doubling the total population of plug-in vehicles to just under 400,000.

In recent weeks the UK government has significantly stepped up its ambition regarding passenger electric vehicle deployment, with a decision to ban the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles in 2030, albeit with some relaxation to 2035 for plug-in hybrid vehicles. The announcement prompted me to look back at the decade old post and to look at how the numbers stack up this time around.

With a population of some 67 million people, the UK has about 33 million cars or just under one car for every two people. This ratio has been rising slowly over the past few years, even as new car sales have edged downwards so we might expect something like 37 million cars in the UK fleet by 2030 for a population of 70 million. Assuming there isn’t a mad rush for internal combustion engine vehicles (ICE) in the years just prior to 2030, then in 2030 we could see some 2.6 million cars sold; more than in 2019 but only reaching the levels seen in 2015 and 2016 despite having 15-20% more cars on the road in total.

This means that in 2030, 2.6 million cars with a battery must be available for UK buyers. They could be pure battery electric (BEV) or plug-in hybrid (PHEV). While the PHEVs are popular today, will that still be the case in 2030? It could be that manufacturers are already abandoning that class of vehicle to simplify production lines, with a focus on ICE production for legacy markets and BEV production for the future. After all, there would be no place for the PHEV in the UK after 2035.

The UK buys about 3.5 – 4.0 % of global passenger vehicle production, so the purchase of 2.6 million vehicles would notionally require 70 million BEVs in production globally, or all passenger vehicle production. However, with a leading policy position on BEV uptake and local vehicle production of some 1.3 million vehicles per annum, the UK could be commanding a relatively higher percentage of the BEV market. This has been the case in Norway in recent years. Of course, other jurisdictions are also declaring earlier dates for the BEV transition, so there could be competition for the available vehicles. But let’s assume the UK can command 8% of BEV production in 2030, which would imply the need for global BEV production of 35 million vehicles in 2030.

Current global BEV production is 2-2.5 million per year, or 3.2% of total passenger vehicle production. That will need to grow by a factor of at least fifteen in ten years for the UK to meet its goal. If there is a limitation in the supply chain for BEVs it is most likely to be the battery. It won’t be the car body, wheels, suspension, electronics, steering system or even the motor (but it is a very different component to ICE) as the capacity for these exists today in one form or another. But large scale Li-Ion battery production is a new and growing industry that requires new supply chains, new sources of critical minerals like cobalt and new processing facilities to make compounds such as lithium hexafluorophosphate.

Cobalt supply might be challenging as most global production comes from one country, the Democratic Republic of the Congo. It is an important component of Li-Ion battery chemistry although battery manufacturers are taking steps to minimize the requirement. Early battery cathodes contained nickel, manganese and cobalt in equal proportions, but companies such as LG Chem are close to producing cathodes with 80% nickel and only 10% cobalt. Tesla’s first Model S, launched in 2012, was built with an average of 11 kg of cobalt per vehicle, but according to Benchmark Minerals that was down to about 4.5 kg in its successor car, the Model 3, which launched in 2018. Nevertheless, if production were to hit 35 million vehicles in 2030 and each vehicle required 5 kg of cobalt, that still amounts to 175,000 tonnes of cobalt. Current global cobalt production capacity is 150,000 tonnes but it is a widely used mineral.

BEVs aren’t the only products competing for Li-Ion batteries. By 2030 we should be seeing a variety of haulage trucks in the market, more electric buses, a continued escalation of consumer devices running on batteries and a surge in demand for grid scale battery packs to help manage renewable intermittency. While battery recycling will be a large industry in the decades ahead, this won’t be the case in 2030 as society will only just be starting the recycle the batteries being produced today, which represent a tiny fraction of 2030s demand.

Other factors will also come into play, but the size of the battery in every car will be important. Early BEV models were relatively small with limited range and had battery storage of around 25 kWh – the Nissan Leaf is a good example. That’s because batteries were very expensive. Today with battery prices falling rapidly, one Nissan variant known as the Leaf e+ has a 62 kWh battery pack. A review of multiple models from several manufacturers shows battery sizes heading towards 75-100 kWh. So let’s assume the average 2030 car has an 80 kWh battery with a range of around 500 kms.

Global Li-Ion battery manufacturing capacity today is around 400 GWh, or enough to make 6 million BEVs with a 62 kWh battery onboard. However, half that capacity is being split between consumer electronics, larger vehicles such as electric buses and home or grid energy storage. In the 2030 world of 80 kWh battery packs and production of at least 35 million vehicles, nearly 3 TWh of battery manufacturing capacity will be needed just for the BEVs. That might mean 5 TWh in total to cater for all the other applications. And therein lies the potential issue.

There is no doubt that battery manufacturing capacity is ramping up rapidly, but where might we be in 2030? A recent analysis by Wood Mackenzie looks at the current project pipeline for new manufacturing facilities and expects a quadrupling to 1.3 TWh by 2030. The same article that discusses the analysis also notes that this is not the most bullish forecast. Bloomberg New Energy Finance expects 1 TWh of battery production capacity by 2025, while Benchmark Minerals expects 1 TWh of capacity by 2022/2023, 1.35 TWh by 2025, and 2.5 TWh by 2030, with China’s CATL accounting for 332 GWh and Tesla, the fourth-largest producer, with 148 GWh of capacity in 2030. Based on current forecasts, nobody is expecting 5 TWh of capacity by 2030, although it is also fair to say that few in 2010 expected solar PV manufacturing capacity to be 160 GW per year by 2020.

So the bottom line for the  UK government and its ambitious plans means that not only must the UK command an outsize proportion of the BEV market, but that Li-Ion battery production is at least double the most ambitious current estimates for 2030.

Finally, assuming the needed rapid growth in BEV sales takes place and the UK reaches 100% sales by 2030, the number of vehicles on the road in that year would still be less than 10 million, out of a total of perhaps 37 million. It will take another decade or more beyond 2030 to turn over the whole fleet, which makes the recently announced 2030 goal of a 68% reduction against 1990 all the more difficult.